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Archive for September 2008

Just about every major stock in technology, from chipmakers to consumer electronics titans to Web stars, was dragged into Wall Street’s slide

While much attention on Sept. 29 was fixed on the failed bailout vote in Congress and its impact on the Dow Jones industrial average, tech stocks also came under pressure.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq dropped 199.61 points, or 9%, to 1983.73, the third-largest percentage decline ever. The Sept. 29 tech-stock rout was eclipsed only by the Black Monday crash on Oct. 19, 1987, when the Nasdaq plummeted more than 11%, and Apr. 14, 2000, when it tumbled 9.7%.

Among tech stocks, the most notable loser was computer and consumer electronics maker Apple (AAPL), the subject of at least two analyst downgrades. Apple fell 22.98, or more than 17%, to 105.26, the company’s fifth-biggest decline in percentage terms. The rout came eight years to the day after Apple’s biggest-ever one-day percentage decline—on Sept. 29, 2000, it lost more than half its value.

Investors sold tech on concerns that, barring a bailout for the financial sector, cutbacks in lending will cause companies to trim or delay orders on computers, software, networking gear, and other tech products. Wall Street’s woes are also depressing consumer sentiment and could make for a bleak end-of-year selling season for consumer electronics makers and online retailers. “Tech is not at the epicenter of the problem,” says Doug Freedman, managing director at American Technology Research in San Francisco. “[But] tech definitely carries higher-than-average multiples and above-average risk for the reward. We’re at a point where people have little tolerance for risk.”

Figuring on Fewer Shoppers

RBC Capital Markets (RY) analyst Michael Abramsky cut his rating on Apple, citing survey data showing consumers are less willing to spend on consumer electronics. At Morgan Stanley (MS), analyst Kathryn Huberty cut her rating because of pressure on Apple’s gross margins—costs are rising for back-to-school promotions and other products. Apple shares finished the day down nearly 48% from their all-time high of 202.96 on Dec. 27, 2007.

A Sept. 26 report from Andy Hargreaves at Pacific Crest Securities in Portland, Ore., claimed that Apple has curtailed manufacturing orders for its iPhone, cutting its target to 14 million from 18 million. Hargreaves’ note followed reports that Apple was reducing its purchases of memory chips (BusinessWeek.com, 9/24/08).

Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM), maker of the BlackBerry wireless device, dropped more than 12%, to 61.73. That followed declines earlier in the month after RIM issued a forecast below analysts’ estimates. RIM has lost 58% since reaching a 52-week high on June 19.

Computer makers also came under fire. Analyst Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel Partners (TWPG) downgraded computer hardware giants Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), while Wachovia (WB) analyst David Wong downgraded the entire computer hardware sector. HP fell 3.26, or nearly 7%, closing at 44.55, while Dell lost 1.59, or more than 9%, to finish at 15.41. Hard drive maker Seagate Technology (STX), newly listed on the Nasdaq, fell 0.68, or more than 5%, to close at 11.74. Software giant Microsoft (MSFT) fell more than 8%.

No One Was Immune

Other losers included chipmaker Intel (INTC), which fell 1.93, or more than 10%. Wireless chipmaker Qualcomm (QCOM) dropped 13%, as did cable TV provider Comcast (CMCSA). Software giant Oracle (ORCL) dropped 1.85, or nearly 9%. Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell 2.03, or more than 8%. Satellite radio concern Sirius XM (SIRI) fell more than 18% to close at 0.62 a share. It has been trading for less than 1.00 a share since Sept. 11 and remains in danger of being delisted.

Internet companies weren’t immune. Search giant Google (GOOG) saw its stock drop 50.04, or 11.6%, ending the day on 381, its first finish below the 400 mark in two years.

Online retailer Amazon (AMZN) fell more than 10%, while eBay (EBAY) dropped 11%. Yahoo (YHOO) also lost more than 10%.

Hesseldahl is a reporter for BusinessWeek.com.

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A $700bn (£380bn) bail-out plan aimed at preventing US banks from running out of cash has been rejected by the House of Representatives.

Had they voted yes, it would have been the start of the biggest government intervention in the economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Now, however, policymakers are looking at their next move.

What are the likely results of the bail-out failure?

The immediate repercussions have been seen on the stock markets.

The Dow Jones lost 770 points – its largest one-day fall in its 38-year history. The Nasdaq index meanwhile fell 9.1% – with markets in Asia and Europe expected to see heavy losses when they open later.

There were large slumps too in the price of oil and the value of the dollar – all of which is likely to cause an expensive headache for some investors.

The evaporation of the rescue plan also leaves little clarity over how the financial sector will recover.

Credit markets are likely to remain almost frozen as banks remain reluctant to lend to other banks.

This means that it will be harder for individuals, small businesses and large firms to get the loans they need – and more costly if they do manage to get access to finance.

Was the failure of the deal expected?

Critics in both political parties had loudly called for the deal to be blocked.

Last week US politicians announced that they had struck a deal, only to see later negotiations end in a shouting match.

However failure had not been seen as likely – not least because Republican and Democrat leaders, and the US government, had agreed a very detailed deal in writing.

But with much of the electorate seeing the rescue package as an unfair bail-out for greedy bankers, many politicians felt unable to support the proposal.

So is the bail-out now dead in the water?

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is to consult with President George W Bush, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and congressional leaders on what steps to take next.

Given the strong backing for a deal – including from both presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, it is likely that some form of the deal will be approved.

With financial markets taking the news badly, a reworked version of the bill is likely to go before politicians.

However this will not be until at least Thursday 1 October.

Why do rich banks need a bail-out?

READ THE BAIL-OUT BILL
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The world’s financial markets are in deep trouble, because too many banks have invested heavily in the huge US mortgage market. Since the US housing bubble burst, banks do not know how many of these loans will be paid back.

What started as a little local difficulty has now engulfed banks around the world.

Banks simply no longer know how much the investments on their books are worth. That makes these investments difficult to sell, and results in some supposedly sound banks running out of cash.

On top of that, banks do not trust each other. They do not know which other banks could get into trouble and are reluctant to lend to each other.

This has brought the global financial system to a standstill, sent interest rates soaring and hit both consumers and businesses.

Already, the credit crunch has resulted in the collapse of several large financial institutions – both in the United States and across Europe.

How was the rescue deal supposed to work?

US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson would have used the money to buy up many of the dubious mortgage investments.

In return, US taxpayers would have got a non-voting stake in the banks that they rescue. So if the banks recover, taxpayers might even make a profit.

$700bn bail-out plan

However, if taxpayers make a loss, then the rest of the financial services industry will be forced to carry some of the cost of the bail-out.

The bosses of banks that were to be bailed out would have seen limits placed on the size of their pay deals, and so-called golden parachutes – huge payments to bankers leaving a bank – have been ruled out.

On top of that, financial institutions would have had to take out an “insurance policy” against future losses on mortgage-backed securities.

And in another big departure from the original plan, there would be four agencies to monitor how the money is doled out.

How would the bail-out have affected me?

If you live in the United States, another $2,300 would have been added to your share of the national debt.

The bail-outs were expected to add up to a whopping $1.8 trillion. That’s $15,000 per US household.

Without a bail-out, the economic crisis is likely to deepen.

In a worst-case scenario there could be a domino effect of banks failing around the world.

Not only would that overwhelm any systems protecting savers and investors, it could have triggered a global economic crisis, with millions of companies going out of business and tens of millions of jobs lost.

If some sort of solution can be reached, the worst of the crisis could be avoided, although it is unlikely to bring everything back to normal.

How was the US government planning to finance the purchase?

The US government had intended to borrow the money from world financial markets. The proposed legislation gave the Treasury the authority to issue an additional $700bn worth of Treasury securities.

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Even before the opening bell, Monday looked ugly.

But by the time that bell sounded again on the New York Stock Exchange, seven and a half frantic hours later, $1.2 trillion had vanished from the U.S. stock market.

What had started 24 hours earlier, with a modest sell-off in stock markets in Asia, had turned into one of Wall Street’s darkest days. The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 777.68 points, just shy of 7 percent, to 10,365.45, its lowest close in nearly three years. The decline also surpasses the record for the biggest decline during a trading day — 721.56 at one point on Sept. 17, 2001, when the market reopened after 9/11.

But in percentage terms, it was only the 17th-biggest decline for the Dow, far less severe than the 20-plus percent drops seen on Black Monday in 1987 and before the Great Depression.

A huge drop in oil prices was another sign of the economic chaos that investors fear. Light, sweet crude fell $10.52 to settle at $96.36 on the New York Mercantile Exchange as investors feared energy demand would continue to slide amid further economic weakness. And gold, where investors flock in search of a relatively secure investment, rose $23.20 to $911.70.

Across Wall Street, no one could quite believe what was happening on the floor — the floor of the House of Representatives, not the stock exchange.

As lawmakers began to vote on a $700 billion rescue for financial institutions, the trading desk at Voyageur Asset Management in Chicago went silent. Money managers gaped at a television screen carrying news that seemed unthinkable: The bill was not going to pass.

Frustration, and then panic, coursed through the markets. Investors feared the decision in Washington would imperil the financial industry, as well as the broader economy.

‘World was unraveling’

“You just felt like the world was unraveling,” Ryan Larson, the firm’s senior equity trader, said. “People started to sell and they sold hard. It didn’t matter what you had — you sold.”

At the Federal Reserve and other central banks, policymakers were also anxious. Even before the vote on Capitol Hill, central bankers tried to jump-start the credit markets by offering hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to banks around the world.

But the neither the stock nor the credit markets appeared to respond. Just 24 hours earlier, few imagined Monday would play out this way.

On Sunday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that they had agreed on the terms of a bailout.

While congressional aides and lawmakers worked on the details, however, the credit crisis that began more than a year ago in the American mortgage market was setting off new alarms around the globe.

Trouble in Europe and Asia

Late Sunday, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg agreed to invest $16.2 billion to rescue a big bank, Fortis. A few hours later, the German government and a group of banks pledged $43 billion to save Hypo Real Estate, a commercial property lender. Then the British treasury seized lender Bradford & Bingley and sold the bulk of it to a Spanish bank.

In Tokyo, where stocks had opened higher in early trading on Monday, worries quickly set in. Markets across Asia began to sell off.

As the drama unfolded in Asia, a major American bank was in trouble. Regulators in Washington were rushing to broker the sale of Wachovia Corp., the nation’s fourth-largest commercial bank. At about 4 a.m., Citigroup learned that Wachovia was theirs.

As investors in New York were getting up, the credit markets were again flashing red as banks reported higher borrowing costs.

When trading opened Monday morning on the New York Stock Exchange, stocks immediately fell 1 percent.

Noting the stress in the money markets, the Fed announced that it would increase to $620 billion its program to lend money through foreign central banks, up from $290 billion. The central bank also said it would double the amount it lends domestically through an auction program to $300 billion.

But when it became clear that the bailout legislation was in trouble, the selling picked up in the stock market.

At his home office in Great Neck, N.Y., investment strategist Edward Yardeni received a series of terse e-mail messages from clients and friends. “Is this the end of the world?” one asked. Another sent a simple plea: “Stop the world, I want to get off.”

Yardeni and other analysts said the action in Washington left many investors discouraged and feeling powerless.

“You can come into the office and spend a lot of time researching companies, trying to understand them. You’ve got a portfolio that you think should do well,” he said. “And none of that matters.”

Broader stock indicators also plummeted. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 106.85, or nearly 9 percent, to 1,106.42. It was the S&P’s largest-ever point drop and its biggest percentage loss since the week after the October 1987 crash.

The Nasdaq composite index fell 199.61, more than 9 percent, to 1,983.73, its third-worst percentage decline.

‘Much work to do’

“How could this have happened? Is there such a disconnect on Capitol Hill? This becomes a problem because Wall Street is very uncomfortable with uncertainty,” said Gordon Charlop, managing director with Rosenblatt Securities.

Paulson, looking exhausted, spoke at the White House.

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Even before the opening bell, Monday looked ugly.

But by the time that bell sounded again on the New York Stock Exchange, seven and a half frantic hours later, $1.2 trillion had vanished from the U.S. stock market.

What had started 24 hours earlier, with a modest sell-off in stock markets in Asia, had turned into one of Wall Street’s darkest days. The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 777.68 points, just shy of 7 percent, to 10,365.45, its lowest close in nearly three years. The decline also surpasses the record for the biggest decline during a trading day — 721.56 at one point on Sept. 17, 2001, when the market reopened after 9/11.

But in percentage terms, it was only the 17th-biggest decline for the Dow, far less severe than the 20-plus percent drops seen on Black Monday in 1987 and before the Great Depression.

A huge drop in oil prices was another sign of the economic chaos that investors fear. Light, sweet crude fell $10.52 to settle at $96.36 on the New York Mercantile Exchange as investors feared energy demand would continue to slide amid further economic weakness. And gold, where investors flock in search of a relatively secure investment, rose $23.20 to $911.70.

Across Wall Street, no one could quite believe what was happening on the floor — the floor of the House of Representatives, not the stock exchange.

As lawmakers began to vote on a $700 billion rescue for financial institutions, the trading desk at Voyageur Asset Management in Chicago went silent. Money managers gaped at a television screen carrying news that seemed unthinkable: The bill was not going to pass.

Frustration, and then panic, coursed through the markets. Investors feared the decision in Washington would imperil the financial industry, as well as the broader economy.

‘World was unraveling’

“You just felt like the world was unraveling,” Ryan Larson, the firm’s senior equity trader, said. “People started to sell and they sold hard. It didn’t matter what you had — you sold.”

At the Federal Reserve and other central banks, policymakers were also anxious. Even before the vote on Capitol Hill, central bankers tried to jump-start the credit markets by offering hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to banks around the world.

But the neither the stock nor the credit markets appeared to respond. Just 24 hours earlier, few imagined Monday would play out this way.

On Sunday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that they had agreed on the terms of a bailout.

While congressional aides and lawmakers worked on the details, however, the credit crisis that began more than a year ago in the American mortgage market was setting off new alarms around the globe.

Trouble in Europe and Asia

Late Sunday, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg agreed to invest $16.2 billion to rescue a big bank, Fortis. A few hours later, the German government and a group of banks pledged $43 billion to save Hypo Real Estate, a commercial property lender. Then the British treasury seized lender Bradford & Bingley and sold the bulk of it to a Spanish bank.

In Tokyo, where stocks had opened higher in early trading on Monday, worries quickly set in. Markets across Asia began to sell off.

As the drama unfolded in Asia, a major American bank was in trouble. Regulators in Washington were rushing to broker the sale of Wachovia Corp., the nation’s fourth-largest commercial bank. At about 4 a.m., Citigroup learned that Wachovia was theirs.

As investors in New York were getting up, the credit markets were again flashing red as banks reported higher borrowing costs.

When trading opened Monday morning on the New York Stock Exchange, stocks immediately fell 1 percent.

Noting the stress in the money markets, the Fed announced that it would increase to $620 billion its program to lend money through foreign central banks, up from $290 billion. The central bank also said it would double the amount it lends domestically through an auction program to $300 billion.

But when it became clear that the bailout legislation was in trouble, the selling picked up in the stock market.

At his home office in Great Neck, N.Y., investment strategist Edward Yardeni received a series of terse e-mail messages from clients and friends. “Is this the end of the world?” one asked. Another sent a simple plea: “Stop the world, I want to get off.”

Yardeni and other analysts said the action in Washington left many investors discouraged and feeling powerless.

“You can come into the office and spend a lot of time researching companies, trying to understand them. You’ve got a portfolio that you think should do well,” he said. “And none of that matters.”

Broader stock indicators also plummeted. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 106.85, or nearly 9 percent, to 1,106.42. It was the S&P’s largest-ever point drop and its biggest percentage loss since the week after the October 1987 crash.

The Nasdaq composite index fell 199.61, more than 9 percent, to 1,983.73, its third-worst percentage decline.

‘Much work to do’

“How could this have happened? Is there such a disconnect on Capitol Hill? This becomes a problem because Wall Street is very uncomfortable with uncertainty,” said Gordon Charlop, managing director with Rosenblatt Securities.

Paulson, looking exhausted, spoke at the White House.

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Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (right) pledged yesterday to renew negotiations with lawmakers. He said he has ''significant tools in our tool kit'' to fix the economy, but they are ''insufficient'' to solve the current crisis without a bailout deal. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (right) pledged yesterday to renew negotiations with lawmakers. He said he has ”significant tools in our tool kit” to fix the economy, but they are ”insufficient” to solve the current crisis without a bailout deal. (Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg)
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WASHINGTON – President Bush and congressional leaders, stunned by the defeat of a $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan yesterday, vowed to quickly craft a new proposal to win over skeptical lawmakers before the worst financial crisis in generations deteriorates into a widespread economic meltdown.

The stinging rejection of Bush’s plan by the House of Representatives – by just 23 votes – sent the stock market into a nosedive of historic proportions. It also injected uncertainty into whether the Senate will take up the measure as expected tomorrow, or whether any bill can garner enough public support and calm a jittery market.

Bush said yesterday he was “disappointed” with the House vote and said he intended to lobby Congress, including recalcitrant members of his own party who helped kill the bill. But the vote was a sign of his waning influence: It came just days after Bush delivered a prime-time speech to sell the plan and pressure lawmakers.

“We’ll be working with members of Congress,” he told reporters at the White House. “Our strategy is to continue to address this economic situation head-on.”

Later, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson grimly said he has “significant tools in our tool kit” to fix the economy, but they are “insufficient” to solve the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression without a government bailout deal. Paulson, who would have obtained unprecedented power to shore up ailing firms under the defeated plan, pledged to renew negotiations with lawmakers. “I will continue to work with congressional leaders to find a way forward to pass a comprehensive plan to stabilize our financial system and protect the American people,” Paulson said after emerging from a White House meeting. “We need to get something done.”

In the meantime, Wachovia Corp., one of the nation’s largest banks, yesterday joined a growing list of leading financial institutions whose bad-mortgage-related debt has led them to the brink of collapse. In a deal facilitated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Citigroup will absorb as much as $42 billion in Wachovia losses, while the FDIC will cover the rest.

Moments after the vote, House members streamed into the hallways of the Capitol and pointed fingers at the opposition.

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Official Google Blog: Ten years and counting

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It’s late summer in Washington at the tail end of a lame duck presidency. And that means one thing for Beltway insiders: open season for lobbying.

The nuclear energy industry is one group in a good position to take advantage of the changing of the guard. And one of its biggest guns–former New Jersey Gov. and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christine Todd Whitman–is drumming up publicity for what might be a nuclear renaissance in the U.S. within the next few years.

“Right now the only base form of power that we have that doesn’t emit any greenhouse gases or other pollutants while producing power is nuclear,” she said in a recent interview with Forbes.com. She says the U.S will need 25 to 27 new reactors by 2030 if nuclear power is to continue to produce 20% of the nation’s electricity, the current level.

Whitman’s got a vested interest in seeing the U.S. nuclear industry bloom. She spoke to Forbes.com in her role as co-chair of the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition, a pro-nuclear group whose very broad membership includes nuclear power heavyweights like Exelon (nyse: EXC news people ), AREVA (other-otc: ARVCF.PK news people ) and Southern Co.. It’s funded by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), an industry organization.

But she’s also got a point. There’s a lot of buzz about nuclear power around the country. Republican presidential candidate John McCain says he wants to see 45 new plants built by 2030. Democrat Barack Obama says it’s “unlikely” the U.S. can meet its climate goals without the help of nuclear power, though he wants the waste issue resolved. Both are pushing for a new regulatory mechanism to curb greenhouse gas pollution, a boon for operators of nuclear plants. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects applications for as many as 34 new reactors by 2010.

Other issues remain. The industry is concerned that Senate appropriators have reduced funding for the proposed waste repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. The NEI is also pushing for the creation of a “clean energy bank” that could offer loans and guarantees on nuclear and other energy projects. It wants to see the government create a cost-sharing program with the private sector for spent fuel-recycling units.

Moreover, Whitman says McCain’s grand vision is a “nice idea” but it’s “not going to happen,” partly because one reactor component is only built in Japan.

Still, the industry’s staying busy. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, a watchdog group, the NEI has spent $1.23 million on lobbying so far in 2008. In June, the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition released a study touting the job creation a nuclear renaissance could bring–as many as 700 jobs at each reactor, many of which pay upwards of $65,000 per year.

“Nuclear’s not a silver bullet,” concedes Whitman. Though it would certainly be cheaper if it was.

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It’s late summer in Washington at the tail end of a lame duck presidency. And that means one thing for Beltway insiders: open season for lobbying.

The nuclear energy industry is one group in a good position to take advantage of the changing of the guard. And one of its biggest guns–former New Jersey Gov. and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christine Todd Whitman–is drumming up publicity for what might be a nuclear renaissance in the U.S. within the next few years.

“Right now the only base form of power that we have that doesn’t emit any greenhouse gases or other pollutants while producing power is nuclear,” she said in a recent interview with Forbes.com. She says the U.S will need 25 to 27 new reactors by 2030 if nuclear power is to continue to produce 20% of the nation’s electricity, the current level.

Whitman’s got a vested interest in seeing the U.S. nuclear industry bloom. She spoke to Forbes.com in her role as co-chair of the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition, a pro-nuclear group whose very broad membership includes nuclear power heavyweights like Exelon (nyse: EXC news people ), AREVA (other-otc: ARVCF.PK news people ) and Southern Co.. It’s funded by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), an industry organization.

But she’s also got a point. There’s a lot of buzz about nuclear power around the country. Republican presidential candidate John McCain says he wants to see 45 new plants built by 2030. Democrat Barack Obama says it’s “unlikely” the U.S. can meet its climate goals without the help of nuclear power, though he wants the waste issue resolved. Both are pushing for a new regulatory mechanism to curb greenhouse gas pollution, a boon for operators of nuclear plants. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects applications for as many as 34 new reactors by 2010.

Other issues remain. The industry is concerned that Senate appropriators have reduced funding for the proposed waste repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. The NEI is also pushing for the creation of a “clean energy bank” that could offer loans and guarantees on nuclear and other energy projects. It wants to see the government create a cost-sharing program with the private sector for spent fuel-recycling units.

Moreover, Whitman says McCain’s grand vision is a “nice idea” but it’s “not going to happen,” partly because one reactor component is only built in Japan.

Still, the industry’s staying busy. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, a watchdog group, the NEI has spent $1.23 million on lobbying so far in 2008. In June, the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition released a study touting the job creation a nuclear renaissance could bring–as many as 700 jobs at each reactor, many of which pay upwards of $65,000 per year.

“Nuclear’s not a silver bullet,” concedes Whitman. Though it would certainly be cheaper if it was.

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“Google hits 1 trillion URLs, skips trillions more”

The story isn’t that Google has found 1,000,000,000,000 unique URLs on the Web. It’s that there are many times more that Google’s engineers haven’t bothered to chase after. Always remember that when you search Google, you’re not searching the actual Internet. You’re searching a bunch of archives at Google with data plucked from the Internet — such as the Google News database, which I’ve been told their lawyers forbade from including either Drudge Report or Valleywag. That makes Google News the world’s largest searchable repository of stale, second-hand rumors and barely rewritten pr

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“YouTube founder claims text is dead by 2018”

In ten years, we believe that online video broadcasting will be the most ubiquitous and accessible form of communication.” It’s on the Official Google Blog, so take YouTube founder Chad Hurley’s claim as a company statement. I envy Google’s ability to have it both ways on just about any topic.

Hurley claims his own site’s “exponential growth” means video is becoming the dominant means of communication — not just for news and entertainment, but for everyday communication between individual people. He ignores the real-world evidence that people vastly prefer text-based communications — email, IM, phone texting — rather than the video tools built into nearly all new computers and most phones. Because he’s rich and works for Google, Hurley’s claim will be widely quoted today, and conveniently forgotten in ten years. Here’s what no one will ask him: Chad, why did you post your world-is-changing claim in text, instead of uploading a video? (Photo by AP/Danny Moloshok)

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